Do Watches Hold Their Value?
Most watches do not hold their value: an average new mechanical watch sells on the secondary market for 50-70% of its retail price within 18 months. A specific shortlist of references — primarily steel sport watches from Rolex, Patek Philippe, Audemars Piguet, and a small number of independents like F.P. Journe — holds 90%+ of MSRP or appreciates outright. Almost everything else depreciates the moment it leaves the boutique.
The four bands of watch value retention
Across the catalog, watches sort into four reliable bands by secondary-market retention:
Appreciating (110%+ of MSRP): Almost exclusively steel sport watches from Rolex (Submariner, GMT-Master II, Daytona, Sky-Dweller, Datejust 41 Wimbledon), Patek Philippe Nautilus / Aquanaut, and Audemars Piguet Royal Oak / Royal Oak Offshore. F.P. Journe and a few specific Lange references also appreciate. These watches have multi-year retail waitlists, which forces the actual transaction price above MSRP.
Strong holders (85-105%): Tudor steel sports (Black Bay 58, Pelagos), Omega Speedmaster Professional, Cartier Santos and Tank, Grand Seiko sport references, Vacheron Constantin Overseas. Demand exceeds boutique supply but not enough to pull the price above retail.
Average performers (55-80%): Most luxury watches — Omega Aqua Terra, IWC Pilot, Breitling Navitimer, Panerai Luminor, Tag Heuer Carrera. These depreciate quickly in the first 18 months, then stabilize for years.
Heavy depreciators (under 50%): Most fashion-coded brands (Movado, Bulova, Citizen non-flagship), most quartz watches regardless of brand, and most microbrands without strong collector recognition.
What drives strong value retention
Four factors compound: supply discipline (the brand limits production below demand), recognizable design language (the watch reads as a Submariner from across the room), steel sport positioning (precious metals depreciate dramatically; steel sport watches hold), and accumulated collector recognition (a long history of being the canonical reference in its category).
A Rolex Submariner satisfies all four. A microbrand homage to the same watch satisfies design language only — which is why a $500 homage holds $250 on the secondary market while the $10,000 original holds $14,000+.
You cannot manufacture this. Brands that try (limiting production runs of mid-tier references to "create scarcity") usually fail because the underlying collector demand isn't there to absorb the limited supply.
Categories that almost never hold value
Quartz watches at any price point depreciate aggressively. The exception is a small number of vintage Seiko quartz models with collector recognition and the Cartier Santos / Tank quartz line, which is sustained by Cartier's broader brand equity.
Complications without horological prestige (open-heart dials, skeleton displays, GMT complications on quartz movements) depreciate faster than the equivalent watch without the complication, because the marginal buyer who would pay extra for the complication has dropped out by the time the watch is resold.
Solid gold dress watches from any brand below the haute horology tier (Patek, AP, Lange, Vacheron) typically sell at melt value plus a small premium — gold's intrinsic value sets the floor.
Fashion-branded watches (Movado, Coach, Michael Kors, etc.) commonly trade at 10-25% of MSRP within five years.
How to read the retention number on a watch page
On every lug2lug spec page, the "Retention" stat is calculated as the watch's current secondary-market average divided by its MSRP, expressed as a percentage. A retention of 100% means the watch trades at MSRP; 110% means it trades above; 60% means it trades for 60% of what the boutique charges.
The secondary market average pulls from eBay and Chrono24 closing prices over the last 90 days. Brand-new watches in the catalog default to a static estimate until the price-cache backfill runs (usually within 48 hours of being added).
A high-retention number is a signal of demand exceeding boutique supply. It is not a guarantee that a specific buyer will pay that price next week — secondary-market sentiment can shift fast, especially on luxury sport watches.
Common questions
Which specific watches appreciate in value?
Steel Rolex sport models (Submariner Date, GMT-Master II Pepsi/Coke/Batman, Daytona), Patek Philippe Nautilus 5711 and Aquanaut 5167, Audemars Piguet Royal Oak Jumbo 15202 and 15500. These have multi-year boutique waitlists that pull secondary-market prices above MSRP.
Does buying a watch on Chrono24 hurt resale?
Not meaningfully. The resale value of a watch is driven by its model, reference, and condition — not by where the previous owner bought it. What does hurt resale is missing original box and papers, an over-polished case, or a non-original strap on a watch where the original is a value driver.
Do limited editions hold their value?
Sometimes. Limited editions from desirable brands with strong baseline retention (Tudor, Omega Speedmaster, Rolex Daytona special-dial references) hold or appreciate. Limited editions from brands without collector momentum tend to depreciate at the same rate as the base model — limiting production doesn't create demand that wasn't already there.
Is buying a watch a good investment?
For 99% of watches, no. A watch is a depreciating consumer good. The watches that appreciate are concentrated in a narrow slice of the market (Rolex steel sport, Patek Nautilus / Aquanaut, AP Royal Oak, a few specific independents) where you generally can't buy at retail without a multi-year boutique relationship. If you have to buy on the secondary market, you're already paying the appreciation premium.